October 2016 EHS Over Ten Years

Every month NAR produces existing home sales, median sales prices and inventory figures. The reporting of this data is always based on homes sold the previous month and the data is explained in comparison to the same month a year ago. We also provide a perspective of the market relative to last month, adjusting for seasonal factors, and comment on the potential direction of the housing market.

The data below shows what our current month data looks like in comparison to the last ten October months and how that might compare to the “ten year October average” which is an average of the data from the past ten October months.

The total number of homes sold in the US for October 2016 is higher the ten year October average. Regionally, all four regions were above the ten year October average, while the Midwest and South led with stronger sales.
Comparing October of 2006 to October of 2016 fewer homes were sold in 2016 in the US and all regions, the Northeast enduring the biggest decline of 29.9 percent. The US had a drop of 11.8 percent while the West had the smallest drop in sales at 2.3 percent over the ten year period. The South led all regions in sales in 2006 and 2016.
This October the median home price is higher than the ten year October average median price for the US and all four regions. The West led all regions with 22.8 percent followed by the South with 18.7 percent. The Midwest was higher by 16.4 percent and the Northeast was above the average by 4.3 percent.
Comparing October of 2016 to October 2006, the median price of a home increased in all regions. The South led all regions with a gain of 10.0 percent followed by the Midwest with 9.3 percent. The US had an incline in price of 6.1 percent while the Northeast had the smallest gain of 0.8 percent and the West experienced a modest gain of 1.2 percent.
The median price year over year percentage change shows that home prices began to fall in 2008 nationally, and prices dipped by double digits in 2008 in the West which had the biggest decline of 17.7 percent. The trend for median home prices turned around completely in 2012, when all regions showed price gains. The West had the biggest price increase of 21.7 percent and the US showed 10.0 gains. The following year, 2013, price growth rates peaked and the West had the largest gain in price of 16.2 percent, while the Northeast had the smallest gain at 5.9 percent from 2012 to 2013. This October the West (7.8%) had the highest year over year price change over the US and the other three regions. Even though prices fell and rose dramatically over the ten-year time period, if we average year over year changes over that time, prices grew less than one percent on average each year for the US and three regions and were down on average only in the Northeast. The US and the South had an average gain of 0.4 percent per year. The Midwest had an average gain of 0.7 percent per year and the West had the biggest gain of 0.8 percent per year. These average gains were computed by averaging the year over year changes. Because these year over year changes apply to different home values each year we can find an average decline in the Northeast event though prices in October 2016 were higher than October 2006 prices in that region.
There are currently fewer homes available for sale in the US this October than the ten year October average. This current October the US had the fastest pace of homes sold relative to the inventory when months supply was 4.3 months. In 2007 the US had the slowest relative pace when it would have taken 10.6 months to sell the supply of homes on the market at the prevailing sales pace. Relative to all supply, the condo market had the biggest challenge in 2008 when it would have taken 12.7 months to sell all available inventory at the prevailing sales pace.
The ten year October average national months supply is 7.1 while single family is 6.9 and condos are 8.5 months supply.
Prices fell the October average year over year percentage change averaging out price change over the ten years prices are up less than one percent for the US and three regions and down in the Northeast.